Russia Equipped to Maintain Ukraine Conflict’s Intensity for Two More Years – Sky Bulletin

According to a report by Lithuanian intelligence services, high oil prices and investments in the military sector, along with the ability to skirt sanctions, may enable Russia to sustain its conflict against Ukraine at the current level of intensity for a minimum of two years. This assessment was released on March 7th.

With the Russian large-scale invasion entering its third year, the situation appears to be escalating, with Russian forces increasing their operations along the battle front. Meanwhile, Ukraine is facing a delicate situation, exacerbated by the delay in military assistance from the United States.

“The report from the State Security Department (VSD) and the military’s Defense Intelligence and Security Service specifies that Russia possesses the financial, human, material, and technical reserves to prolong the combat at the current rate for at least the near future,” detailed in the report which interprets the “near future” as ranging from half a year to two years.

Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine is now at the forefront of its international policy, as the Kremlin aims to halt support for Kyiv through coercive tactics and intimidation, as per the summary.

Additionally, the Russian government is broadening its corporate network to bypass Western sanctions, actively seeking intermediaries to procure necessary equipment for the ongoing war.

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Western nations are ramping up efforts to block Russia’s ability to evade sanctions through third-party countries. This includes countries like Turkey, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and China supplying vital components such as computer parts and drones, which are crucial for maintaining Russian defense operations.

The Lithuanian intelligence warns that if the confrontation in Ukraine were to come to a halt or diminish, Moscow would shift its focus towards building its military strengths directed at the west.

Despite the enormous allocations towards the Ukrainian war effort, Russia is simultaneously preparing for an extended showdown with NATO, including flexing its military muscles in the Baltic Sea region, the document stated.

Several NATO representatives have signaled the possibility of a direct encounter with Russia in the foreseeable future, requiring the alliance to be prepared for such a scenario.

The briefing noted that “Russia… is undergoing a comprehensive reform of its Armed Forces,” with its full execution expected to span from several years to over a decade.

The Russian government is also strengthening Belarus’s military capacity, offering support to Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko while maintaining a sense of autonomy in his decisions. Nonetheless, reports suggest Moscow plans to ensure a firm grip on Minsk by positioning its tactical nuclear weapons there and securing a longstanding military foothold.

Ukrainian troops near Kupiansk are preparing for a possible Russian offensive

Editor’s note: The full names of soldiers are not disclosed by The Kyiv Independent due to security reasons and in adherence to the protocol of the military unit amid the Ukraine war. With Russian forces advancing beyond the now-conquered Avdiivka, quietude has settled in other frontlines…