Multimillionaire Investors Favor Kamala Harris Despite Economic Preference for Trump
Overview: Election Insights from Wealthy Investors
A recent UBS survey reveals an intriguing trend among multimillionaire investors in the U.S. While a significant majority plans to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, many believe that former President Donald Trump would be better for the economy. This dichotomy underscores the complexities of investor sentiment as the 2024 election approaches.
Survey Breakdown: Investor Preferences
The UBS survey, conducted among 971 U.S. investors with at least $1 million in investable assets, indicates that 57% are planning to support Harris, while 43% favor Trump. The demographic breakdown includes 38% Republicans, 34% Democrats, and 26% Independents. Notably, nearly all respondents cite the economy as their primary concern ahead of the elections, followed closely by Social Security, taxes, and immigration.
Among millionaire Democrats, Harris enjoys overwhelming support, capturing 91% of the vote. Conversely, 88% of millionaire Republicans are backing Trump. Among Independents, the preference leans toward Harris, with a 60% to 40% split.
Economic Perspectives: Trump vs. Harris
Interestingly, when asked who would better address economic issues, 51% of respondents chose Trump over Harris. Trump also received more favorable responses regarding tax policy, with 52% believing he would be more effective in that area. However, investors believe Harris would be better equipped to improve healthcare.
Trump’s appeal among high-net-worth individuals can largely be attributed to his proposal to extend and expand the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which is set to expire on January 1, 2026. On the other hand, Harris advocates for tax cuts exclusively for individuals earning less than $400,000 annually, suggesting higher taxes for those with larger incomes.
Portfolio Adjustments Ahead of Election Day
The UBS survey also reveals that 77% of investors are likely to adjust their portfolios before the election. Many are considering adding protections or increasing their cash holdings. Should Harris win, investors are more inclined to focus on sectors such as healthcare, technology, and sustainability. In contrast, a Trump victory could lead to greater interest in defense, energy, and industrial sectors.
Iqbal Khan, copresident of UBS Global Wealth Management, commented on the heightened interest: “Clients and business owners around the world have their eyes on the U.S. elections and want to know what either outcome means for their investments.”
Confidence Levels and Optimism
Despite the election uncertainties, just over half (55%) of millionaire investors expressed high confidence in the economy’s direction, a notable increase from the 43% confidence reported in 2020. Additionally, nearly three-quarters of investors—20% more than in 2020—said they are “highly optimistic” about their portfolio returns over the next six months. Among business owners, 74% are optimistic about their businesses’ performance over the next year, marking a 6% rise from the previous election cycle.
Rob Karofsky, another copresident of UBS Global Wealth Management, emphasized the significance of economic performance as a key concern. He stated, “It’s encouraging to see a general increase in optimism as we navigate the volatile market landscape in an election year.”
Conclusion: The Complexity of Investor Sentiment
The findings from the UBS survey illustrate the nuanced perspectives of multimillionaire investors as they approach the 2024 election. While they may lean towards voting for Harris, their economic preferences show a preference for Trump’s policies. As the election nears, investors are not only preparing to cast their votes but also actively reconsidering their investment strategies based on anticipated political outcomes.