Key Points to Monitor as China Commences its Major Annual Political Gathering – Sky Bulletin

As China enters its key legislative session of 2024, the spotlight shines on the economy amid the National People’s Congress (NPC). The NPC, due to open on Tuesday, has drawn global attention for potential directives and reforms aimed at reinvigorating a faltering economy, burdened by increased government regulations and a deflating property market bubble.

While there are other issues in the lineup, such as a proposed increase in the retirement age and the appointment of a potential new foreign minister, as well as the defense budget scrutiny, the prime focus is the economic trajectory of China. The economic downturn post-COVID and the resultant shakeup in public confidence loom in the minds of many Chinese citizens.

The NPC’s Symbolic Function

Traditionally, the NPC has served a symbolic role in China’s politico-legal system, endorsing decisions pre-determined by the Party’s top echelons. This rubber-stamp parliament holds a grid of representatives from all walks, yet the consolidation of power by President Xi Jinping has notably diminished this facilitative role, as per Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School governance expert Albert Wu.

Nevertheless, the congress remains a beacon for policy direction, and history suggests that major policy thrusts (such as 2020’s national security law for Hong Kong) can emerge from this meeting.

Setting the Economic Agenda

The Congress will open with Premier Li Qiang’s delivery of the annual “work report”, charting out the past year and setting the forthcoming year’s economic growth goal. Analyst expectations hinge around a target similar to the previous year’s “about 5%” despite lower growth forecasts by some experts. However, the setting of a substantially higher or lower figure could send significant ripples through market sentiments and reflect the government’s stimulus intentions.

The NPC will assuredly also touch on state support for private enterprises and foreign investments, though any sweeping deviation from Xi Jinping’s strategy of tightened state economic control remains unforeseen.

Possibility of a New Foreign Minister

The unusual vacancy left by Qin Gang after his brief tenure as foreign minister sparks speculation of a successor, with potential candidates Liu Jianchao and Ma Zhaoxu among those considered close to the central decision-makers. Outcomes from the NPC could possibly reveal the next permanent foreign ministerial appointment.

What is the National People’s Congress?

The National People’s Congress is the top legislative body in China, which convenes annually to pass policies and laws aligned with the Communist Party’s directions.

Why is the economy a major focus at this year’s NPC?

The economy is at the forefront because of the need to address a slowdown and instill confidence among businesses and consumers within China.

What is the significance of the economic growth target?

The stated economic growth target is an indicator of the government’s outlook and planned stimulus efforts, which can influence market and international investor confidence.

Could there be a new foreign minister announced?

It is possible that a new foreign minister will be appointed during the session, considering the current vacancy and the speculation around various candidates.

Does the NPC have real legislative power?

While formally a legislative body, the NPC primarily endorses decisions made by the leadership of the Communist Party of China, and its role has become more ceremonial, especially under Xi Jinping’s centralization of power.