JPMorgan Analyst Predicts Over 30% Surge for Coach Parent Tapestry Shares

Wall Street turns bullish on Tapestry as luxury retailer eyes strong rebound

Shares of Tapestry Inc., the parent company of Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman, could jump more than 30% in the next year, according to a new note from leading JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss. The bullish forecast highlights renewed optimism for the luxury retailer after a period of industry headwinds and market uncertainty.

JPMorgan's Bullish Call on Tapestry

In an analyst note published Monday and first reported by CNBC, JPMorgan's Matthew Boss upgraded Tapestry (NYSE: TPR) to "overweight" from "neutral," setting a new price target that reflects over 30% upside potential from Friday's close. Boss's upgrade marks a confidence boost just weeks after Tapestry reported solid quarterly results and moved forward with its acquisition of rival Capri Holdings.

“Recent channel checks and positive earnings trends for Tapestry’s core Coach brand suggest that the company is well positioned to outperform its peers in the branded accessories space,” Boss wrote. He cited improving demand, “disciplined inventory management,” and strategic pricing as key factors likely to drive profitability and share gains in the coming months.

Catalysts Behind the Optimism

Expansion and Acquisition Strategy

The analyst also pointed to Tapestry’s strategic deal-making, including the pending $8.5 billion acquisition of Capri Holdings, owner of Michael Kors and Versace. If completed, the move would create an American luxury conglomerate positioned to rival European giants like LVMH and Kering.

“Tapestry’s roll-up strategy in luxury apparel is gaining traction and presents significant synergies,” Boss noted. The anticipated cost savings and enhanced scale from the Capri deal could deliver “material upside” to earnings, he said.

Resilience in the U.S. Consumer Market

While luxury brands have struggled with uneven demand in key Asian markets, especially China, Tapestry has offset any softness with strong North American sales. Coach, long known for accessible luxury, has benefited from a rebound in domestic consumer spending and successful marketing toward younger demographics.

JPMorgan projects that Coach’s North America same-store sales will rise by mid-single-digits in 2025, outpacing many industry peers.

Industry Backdrop: Branded Accessories Hold Their Appeal

Luxury retailers have contended with softer demand in China and rising inventory across the sector. However, Tapestry’s disciplined approach—coupled with its diverse brand portfolio—has positioned it to navigate these challenges more effectively than many rivals.

“Accessories remain a bright spot in consumer discretionary spending, even during economic uncertainty,” said Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group, in an interview with CNBC. “Brands like Coach continue to resonate by offering both heritage and value.”

Investor sentiment for luxury stocks still leans cautious, but analysts view Tapestry’s relative stability and integration strategy as differentiators.

What Comes Next for Tapestry?

Integration Hurdles and Market Risks

While the JPMorgan report is bullish, analysts caution the Tapestry-Capri merger could face regulatory scrutiny or integration challenges. "Mergers of this size always carry risks, from operational overlap to brand dilution," observed Morningstar analyst David Swartz.

Tapestry shares have lagged well-known European counterparts, but analysts see room for further gains if the acquisition is completed and the company successfully realizes cost savings.

Investor Takeaway

After rising more than 10% year to date, Tapestry shares closed Friday at $38.14. JPMorgan's new price target of $50 implies at least 31% upside from these levels. The stock climbed another 3.5% in pre-market trading Monday on news of the upgrade.

Sources:

CNBC: JPMorgan bullish on Coach parent Tapestry

Bloomberg market data

Company press releases

Morningstar, Telsey Advisory Group comments via CNBC interviews