OpenAI’s Billion-Dollar IPO Could Be at Risk, Says Scott Galloway
Scott Galloway Questions OpenAI’s IPO Prospects
Despite forecasts predicting a surge in initial public offerings (IPOs) this year, NYU Stern professor and tech analyst Scott Galloway is sounding a cautionary note about OpenAI’s highly anticipated public listing. On a recent episode of Prof G Markets, Galloway suggested that the ChatGPT creator’s IPO might not happen at all, citing mounting competition and a shift in public perception.
“OpenAI could get pulled,” Galloway said, assigning a “nonzero probability” to the company abandoning its IPO plans. This statement contrasts sharply with reports of OpenAI seeking additional funding at valuations as high as $830 billion.
Competition Is Closing In
Galloway argues that OpenAI’s lead in AI is narrowing. Unlike companies such as SpaceX, which dominate their industries, OpenAI’s “sustainable advantage is really, really thin.”
New competitors are rapidly gaining ground. Google’s Gemini platform and a variety of open-weight AI models are gaining traction, while Anthropic is outperforming OpenAI in the enterprise sector. Anthropic has positioned itself as a safe, human-focused alternative, winning over customers wary of AI risks.
This intensifying competition, Galloway warns, could put pressure on OpenAI’s valuation and limit the upside for public investors.
A Toxic Brand Shift
Beyond technology, Galloway points to a “vibe shift” in OpenAI’s public image. Whereas the company had a positive reputation in 2025, sentiment has now turned negative.
He specifically cited concerns over CEO Sam Altman’s close ties to political figures, which some investors view as a liability. The backlash appears to affect perceptions of OpenAI’s primary backer, Microsoft, with some investors questioning whether the tech giant’s massive AI investments will translate into meaningful revenue.
Retail investors, Galloway argues, may be particularly at risk if they buy into the IPO without fully understanding these reputational and market pressures.
The IPO Could Be a “Rigged Game”
Galloway also highlighted the risks for everyday investors. He described the current IPO environment as skewed in favor of institutions and insiders, who gain access to discounted shares while retail investors are left to buy at inflated prices fueled by “pent-up demand.”
“If OpenAI, Anthropic, or SpaceX do go public, the opening prices will be completely irrational,” he warned.
A Record-Breaking IPO Market
Despite Galloway’s concerns, other analysts remain bullish on the IPO market overall. Blackstone is reportedly planning one of the largest IPO pipelines in history, and Goldman Sachs predicts the market is entering an IPO “megacycle,” defined by unprecedented deal volume and size.
Acadian Asset Management’s Owen Lamont recently told Fortune that while he doesn’t see the AI stock market as bubbly, the potential for a massive IPO wave remains. OpenAI, SpaceX, and other tech giants could still spark record-breaking public offerings.
What This Means for Investors
The takeaway is clear: even with AI hype at an all-time high, OpenAI’s IPO may face serious hurdles. Between rising competition, brand perception issues, and market dynamics favoring insiders, retail investors could find themselves at a disadvantage.
Galloway’s warning serves as a reminder that high valuations and hype don’t always guarantee a smooth path to the public market. For those considering investing in OpenAI or other mega-tech IPOs, careful scrutiny may be more important than ever.
