China’s Massive Investment in Chipmaking Equipment Raises Concerns Over Future Overcapacity"
China’s aggressive investment in semiconductor manufacturing equipment has surged dramatically, surpassing the combined expenditures of major tech economies including the U.S., South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan for the first half of 2024. This ambitious spending spree, driven by Beijing’s drive for chip self-sufficiency amid escalating Western restrictions, could lead to a significant overcapacity issue in the global semiconductor market.
According to a recent report from SEMI, the global semiconductor industry association, China invested a staggering $24.73 billion in chipmaking equipment in the first six months of 2024. This figure eclipses the combined $23.68 billion spent by South Korea, Taiwan, North America, and Japan during the same period. The bulk of North America’s expenditure was accounted for by the United States, which has been at the forefront of tightening export controls on semiconductor technology.
China’s increased spending on chip manufacturing equipment marks a dramatic shift from the $28 billion it invested in 2022, with projections for 2024 suggesting a total expenditure of over $35 billion. This ramp-up in investment follows the U.S. implementation of stricter export restrictions in October 2022, which have pushed China to accelerate its efforts to reduce reliance on foreign technology and achieve self-sufficiency in semiconductor production.
Clark Tseng, senior director at SEMI, highlighted that this over-investment could result in “inefficient or underutilized capacity” in the future. This scenario may create pricing pressures for global industry peers and contribute to an overall imbalance in the semiconductor market. Tseng anticipates that while the spending spree will likely continue into the second half of the year, there will be a necessary slowdown in 2025 to manage and digest the newly acquired capacity.
The push for self-sufficiency is largely focused on legacy chips, which are built on manufacturing nodes of 20 nanometers or larger. These older-generation chips are crucial for consumer electronics, automotive applications, and home appliances. China has made significant strides in producing these chips, but its progress in advancing to more cutting-edge semiconductor technologies remains limited.
According to Alex Capri, a senior lecturer at the National University of Singapore and research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, China is still facing substantial challenges in developing advanced chips. These chips, which feature smaller transistors packed onto a single semiconductor, offer more powerful processing capabilities but require extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools—technology that has been restricted by U.S. export controls.
Despite these constraints, China has achieved some milestones, such as the production of 7-nanometer chips for Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro smartphone. However, Capri noted that manufacturing these advanced chips without EUV tools is both less efficient and significantly more costly.
The possibility of further U.S. restrictions on semiconductor technology looms large, prompting Chinese companies to stockpile equipment as a precautionary measure. This proactive strategy is intended to mitigate the risks of additional export curbs, especially in the context of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The sweeping export restrictions imposed by the Netherlands and Japan, aligning with U.S. interests, have not completely sidelined China from the semiconductor equipment market. On the contrary, major semiconductor equipment manufacturers have seen a notable increase in revenue from their Chinese clients. For instance, Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML reported that its revenue share from Chinese customers more than doubled from 17% in late 2022 to 49% in the second quarter of 2024. Similarly, Tokyo Electron and Screen Holdings derived over 40% of their total revenue from China during the same period.
In the second quarter of 2024, equipment sales to China reached $12.21 billion, dwarfing the $4.52 billion in sales to South Korea, $3.9 billion to Taiwan, and $1.61 billion to Japan, according to SEMI. This substantial market share underscores China’s ongoing significance as a major player in the global semiconductor industry.
As China continues to invest heavily in chipmaking infrastructure, the potential for future overcapacity and its impact on global semiconductor pricing and market dynamics will be closely watched. The industry faces a critical juncture as it navigates the complex interplay between national policies, technological advancements, and market forces.