China's Golden Week Travel: Increased Numbers but Lower Spending Amid Economic Struggles

As China approaches the Golden Week holiday, expectations for travel are on the rise, with projections indicating a significant increase in domestic trips compared to previous years. However, persistent economic challenges are likely to dampen overall consumer spending during this peak travel season.

A Surge in Domestic Travel

According to the Ministry of Transport, authorities anticipate that approximately 1.94 billion inter-city trips will be taken during the National Day holiday, which runs from September 29 to October 8 this year. This figure represents a slight increase from last year and reflects a growing trend in domestic tourism. Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group, noted that while the number of trips could surpass those made in 2019, the average expenditure per traveler is expected to decline.

This shift in spending behavior underscores the cautious approach many consumers are taking in light of the country’s ongoing economic woes, particularly the slump in the real estate market and rising unemployment rates. Rein pointed out that consumers are likely to hold back on spending until they perceive their income levels to be stable and on the rise.

The Impact of Reduced Prices

The travel landscape is also changing, with data from Trip.com indicating a downward trend in the prices of flights and accommodations compared to last year. Both domestic and outbound flights have become cheaper, making travel more accessible to a wider audience. This affordability could encourage more people to travel, even if they are spending less overall.

Moreover, travelers appear to be opting for lower-cost transport options. The National Railway Administration predicts over 175 million rail trips will be made during the holiday, with passenger volumes peaking on October 3, when more than 21 million trips are expected. This represents a notable increase from the single-day record of 20.7 million trips recorded during the Labor Day holiday in May.

Mixed Signals from the Tourism Sector

Despite the expected uptick in travel numbers, the overall spending in the tourism sector remains a point of concern. Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist at Natixis, cautioned that any increases in tourism spending during Golden Week should be viewed in the context of last year’s lower performance. Last year, domestic tourism revenue reached 753 billion yuan (approximately $107.37 billion), reflecting a modest increase of 1.5% compared to 2019.

While this year’s travel data suggests a recovery from the pandemic’s impacts, it remains uneven. In the first three quarters of 2023, China recorded 4.29 billion domestic trips, a rise of 16.8% from the same period last year, with tourism revenue expected to increase by 17.1% year on year, amounting to 4.32 trillion yuan ($615.6 billion). Additionally, inbound passenger trips are projected to grow by 55.4%, reaching 95 million.

However, the trend in average spending per traveler continues to be a concern. Earlier this year, during the Labor Day holiday, while China saw higher numbers of domestic trips and total tourism spending compared to 2019, the average expenditure remained below pre-pandemic levels. This pattern may repeat during Golden Week.

Government Interventions and Economic Outlook

In response to a slew of disappointing economic data released last month, Chinese authorities have introduced several support measures aimed at revitalizing the sluggish economy. These measures include cutting the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50 basis points, a move intended to increase liquidity and stimulate spending.

Experts like Shaun Rein remain optimistic about the potential for a rebound in consumer spending, especially during the upcoming Chinese New Year. Following the latest round of government stimulus, there may be a renewed sense of confidence among consumers that could encourage more significant spending during that festive period.

Conclusion

As China enters its Golden Week holiday, the anticipated increase in travel is a positive sign for the tourism sector. However, the ongoing economic challenges, including a struggling real estate market and rising unemployment, are likely to temper overall spending. With travelers opting for more affordable options and remaining cautious about their expenditures, the focus will be on how the government’s recent economic measures will impact consumer confidence moving forward.

The success of this Golden Week will not only reflect the resilience of China’s tourism industry but also serve as a barometer for the country’s economic recovery in the months ahead. Observers will be watching closely to see if increased travel numbers translate into a stronger economic outlook or if spending habits remain subdued as consumers navigate their financial uncertainties.